Osimhen, Lookman & Co
Nigeria’s chances of achieving automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup took a significant hit after their 1-1 draw with South Africa on Tuesday. The Super Eagles now face the grim possibility of missing out on a playoff spot for the upcoming tournament in North America, a sobering outcome for a nation known for its football prowess. In Bloemfontein, Nigeria entered the game trailing South Africa, the leaders of Group C, by six points and realistically needed a win to keep any hopes of finishing at the top alive.
The match started poorly for Nigeria, with captain William Troost-Ekong inadvertently scoring an own goal. Although Calvin Bassey managed to equalize, the Super Eagles now require an extraordinary turn of events to qualify for the World Cup. Despite boasting a squad filled with elite players from top leagues and being the second most valuable nation in Africa according to Transfermarkt, coach Éric Chelle’s team seems poised to miss a second consecutive World Cup.
Why Nigeria’s World Cup aspirations seem bleak
With only two group matches remaining in the CAF qualification process for the World Cup, each of the nine group winners will qualify automatically, while the four best runners-up will fight for the last spot in playoffs. Currently, Nigeria sits third in Group C, six points behind South Africa and three points behind Benin, who they will face in their final qualifier.
South Africa is poised to secure automatic qualification with upcoming matches against Zimbabwe and Rwanda next month. While Nigeria still has a chance to finish second in their group, their prospects of securing one of the four best runner-up slots are slim. The maximum points Nigeria can achieve is 17, while Gabon already has 19, and Madagascar and DRC Congo are close behind with 16 points. Historically, Nigeria has qualified for six out of seven World Cups from 1994 to 2018, but their journey to Canada, Mexico, and the United States in 2026 looks increasingly unlikely.
Nigeria: The second most valuable country in Africa
Nigeria’s squad is filled with star talent, including Ademola Lookman, the current African Footballer of the Year. Although Lookman played in the draw against South Africa, Victor Osimhen was sidelined due to injury. Osimhen is valued at €70 million, making him the third most valuable African player, and his absence was certainly felt during the match.
As shown in the graphic above, Nigeria boasts the second most valuable squad among African nations, valued at €335.5m, just behind Morocco at €358m. It is nearly unfathomable that such a talented team could miss out on the World Cup, particularly with players representing all of the top five leagues. To contextualize their qualification struggles, Nigeria’s squad is over ten times more valuable than South Africa’s, who are set to finish top of Group C.
