Squad value disparity exceeds €1 billion
Throughout his career, Pep Guardiola has been a dominant force in football, establishing himself as a leading coach over the past two decades. His teams have consistently triumphed, reshaping football culture, setting trends, and mentoring future managers. Since 2008, with his stints at Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City, he has secured 12 domestic league titles, 10 domestic cups, and three Champions League titles. While he is undoubtedly one of the greatest managers in history, the question arises: is his time at the top coming to an end?
On Tuesday night, Guardiola’s Manchester City suffered a surprising 3-1 defeat to Norwegian club BodøGlimt in the Champions League, marking a continuation of their winless streak in the last four Premier League matches. After an underwhelming season last year, expectations were high for City to mount a serious challenge for the Premier League title once again. Despite it being January, the once-indomitable City seems to be losing its edge. Are we witnessing a shift?
Is Pep Guardiola’s reign of dominance drawing to a close?
The graphic above highlights a notable decline when comparing Guardiola’s teams at this stage of the season. The only seasons in which his teams have garnered fewer league points than this year’s tally of 43 after 22 matches were during his last season (38 points). These standards are exceptionally high, but while last year could be seen as an outlier, the fact that this season marks the third-lowest points total indicates a troubling trend.
Guardiola is approaching his 10th anniversary at Manchester City, making this territory relatively uncharted for him. Despite having built one of the best teams in football history, which achieved four consecutive Premier League titles, key players such as Kevin De Bruyne, İlkay Gündoğan, Kyle Walker, and Ederson are no longer part of the squad. Additionally, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are entering their twilight years. Given Guardiola’s intense energy and commitment, it is reasonable to question whether he has the desire to rebuild at City.
That said, Manchester City still boasts an impressive squad and has welcomed exciting young talent like Rayan Cherki. However, with Guardiola’s contract expiring in 2027 and rumors suggesting he might depart at the end of this season, the club may be contemplating life without their most successful manager. All eras must end, and possibly Guardiola’s era of unyielding success at the highest level is concluding. Nevertheless, his legacy is secure, and his impact on the game remains evident.
Pep Guardiola’s legacy will remain intact
Mikel Arteta leads Arsenal at the top of the Premier League, having worked under Guardiola. Enzo Maresca recently captured the Club World Cup with Chelsea, and Vincent Kompany is poised to secure back-to-back Bundesliga titles with Bayern Munich, both of whom were influenced by Guardiola’s coaching. This pattern is clear—if Guardiola’s dominance in top-level management wanes, it is likely his former protégés who will step into those shoes.
Guardiola frequently credits Dutch legend Johan Cruyff as his primary inspiration, having played under him at Barcelona. “Without him I wouldn’t be here,” Guardiola stated in 2016, acknowledging the profound impact of his former coach on his career. While Cruyff’s legacy enabled Guardiola’s rise, the Spaniard’s influence on football is unparalleled—he has transformed how the game is played across all levels in England. One can observe local Sunday League teams implementing Guardiola’s philosophy of playing from the back.
Ultimately, while his transformative impact on football plays a significant role in his legacy, the sheer volume of his accomplishments is what sets him apart. Daring to challenge Guardiola’s achievements would be a bold move, and that isn’t the focus here. He will always be regarded as one of the greatest managers, yet it is clear that a shift in his dominance is on the horizon. If his Manchester City fails to clinch the league title this season, it will mark the first time in his managing career that he has experienced back-to-back seasons without a league victory. A footballing icon, but new stars are on the rise.
