Tottenham’s €288m Struggle: Caught in the Shadow of the ‘Big Six’

Trouble in North London

Tottenham Hotspur’s manager Thomas Frank finds himself under immense pressure after Saturday’s 2-1 defeat against struggling West Ham in the Premier League. This result has left Tottenham in 14th place, managing only two wins in their last 13 league matches. Under Frank, the team’s performance averages just 1.28 points per match, significantly lower than the 1.52 points per game achieved by his predecessor, Ange Postecoglou. This marks the worst performance for any permanent manager at Tottenham in the past two decades. According to Fabrizio Romano, Frank will remain in charge for the Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday, but his position beyond this month is uncertain.

The question of whether Frank deserves to be dismissed less than a year into his role is contentious. While many Spurs fans are critical of his tactical choices and player selection, they also acknowledge that he is working with one of the weakest squads Tottenham has seen in years. The departures of key players like Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, and Heung-Min Son have left a void that the club has struggled to fill. This raises the question of how much Tottenham has fallen behind their domestic competitors, both in quality and in the league standings, and how much of this should be considered when evaluating Frank’s performance.

Tottenham’s Struggle to Compete with the “Big Six”

As many Spurs supporters might reluctantly admit, the club’s decline in the Premier League began with Mauricio Pochettino’s departure in late 2019. A comparison of Tottenham’s squad market value with that of the so-called “Big Six” reveals their struggles to stay competitive. In January 2020, shortly after Pochettino’s exit, Tottenham’s squad was valued at €966 million. This figure dropped sharply to €643 million in January 2022 but has since risen to €873 million. Despite this increase, Tottenham’s market value has still declined by 10% since January 2020, while their rivals have seen significant growth.

When comparing the average squad market value of the other “Big Six” clubs, the disparity becomes apparent. The average market value of these rivals has surged from €937 million in January 2020 to €1.09 billion now, marking a €162 million increase or 16%. Notably, Spurs’ squad value was €28 million above the Big Six average in January 2020, but it is now trailing by €227 million.

Compounding the issue, no other “Big Six” club has improved more dramatically than Arsenal during this period. While Tottenham’s squad market value has dropped by €92 million since January 2020, Arsenal’s has soared by €630 million. What makes this trend particularly alarming is that Arsenal’s net spending on transfers has been only €140 million more than Tottenham’s in the same timeframe. In fact, Spurs have the fourth highest net spend among all English clubs since the 2019/20 season, yet their squad strength does not reflect a top-four caliber team.

Mid-table Rivals Complicating Tottenham’s Position

The struggles faced by Tottenham are not only due to their inability to keep up with the league’s top clubs, but also because they are being challenged by teams ranked below them. Since the 2019/20 season, Tottenham occupies sixth place in total points accumulated among all Premier League teams, with clubs like Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Brighton closely following them. Over the past six years, these mid-table teams have made significant advancements both on and off the pitch.

As the table illustrates, while Tottenham’s squad market value decreased by €93 million, Aston Villa’s increased by €270 million, Newcastle’s by €306 million, and Brighton’s by an impressive €443 million. In January 2020, the market values of these three mid-table clubs were approximately €720 million less than Tottenham’s. Now, they are only €288 million behind, impacting Tottenham’s league standing significantly.

Since the beginning of the 2019/20 season, Tottenham has had a mixed record against Aston Villa, Brighton, and Newcastle, managing only seven wins, six losses against Aston Villa, six wins, one draw, and six losses against Brighton, and just four wins, three draws, and six losses against Newcastle. This averages out to only 1.41 points per game against these clubs, meaning Spurs have secured merely 33% of the available points in encounters with teams vying for the top six each season.

None of this is surprising to Tottenham fans who have witnessed their team struggle against these rivals while watching teams like Arsenal and Manchester City move ahead. Clearly, this current Tottenham squad is far from capable of consistently competing for a top-six finish. It remains uncertain whether these challenges will be weighed when evaluating Thomas Frank’s future at the club.