Three consecutive draws
Throughout his career, Pep Guardiola has been a dominating force in football, making his mark since he first emerged on the coaching scene two decades ago. His teams have consistently secured victories, reshaping the culture of the sport and leaving a lasting impact on the next wave of managers. From his time at Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City, Guardiola has amassed a staggering 12 domestic league titles, 10 domestic cups, and three Champions League trophies. He is often regarded as the greatest manager in history, but is his period of dominance finally waning?
On Wednesday, Guardiola’s Manchester City faced another setback, drawing 1-1 with Brighton at the Etihad Stadium. This result marks their third consecutive draw, allowing Arsenal the opportunity to extend their lead to eight points should they defeat Liverpool at the Emirates on Thursday. Following a disappointing season last year, many expected City to mount a serious title challenge this time around. While there’s still plenty of time left in the season, the once-formidable City line-up appears to be diminishing. Are we witnessing a shift in dynamics?
Is Pep Guardiola’s era of dominance coming to an end?
As depicted in the graphic above, analyzing Guardiola’s teams at this stage in previous seasons reveals a noticeable decline. The only times his teams have accrued fewer league points than this season’s tally of 43 after 21 games were during his inaugural season at Manchester City (42 points) and last season (35 points). While these are incredibly high standards, the fact that this season stands as the third-lowest point total indicates a concerning trend.
Guardiola is approaching his 10-year anniversary with Manchester City, marking a significant milestone as he has remained at this club longer than any other before. In many ways, he is treading unfamiliar ground. Although he has assembled one of the most celebrated teams in football history at the Etihad, paving the way for four consecutive Premier League titles, a considerable portion of that squad has now been dismantled. Players like Kevin De Bruyne, İlkay Gündoğan, Kyle Walker, and Ederson are no longer with the club. Additionally, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are aging. Given Guardiola’s intense commitment to his role, it is reasonable to question whether he has the energy to rebuild at City.
It’s important to note that Manchester City still boasts an exceptional squad, having added promising young talents like Rayan Cherki. However, with Guardiola’s contract set to expire in 2027 and speculation about his potential departure at the end of this season, it seems the club may be considering its future post-Guardiola. As eras inevitably conclude, it appears Guardiola’s reign of unparalleled success at the highest level may be on the decline, yet his legacy will undoubtedly remain intact, and his influence on the game continues to resonate.
Pep Guardiola’s legacy will endure
Mikel Arteta, who now leads Arsenal at the top of the Premier League, worked under Guardiola. Enzo Maresca, who guided Chelsea to victory in the Club World Cup, was one of Guardiola’s mentees. Vincent Kompany, on track to secure back-to-back Bundesliga titles with Bayern Munich, also learned under Guardiola. This theme is evident: even as Guardiola’s tenure at the pinnacle of management potentially draws to a close, many of his former proteges are stepping into positions of prominence.
Guardiola frequently cites Dutch legend Johan Cruyff as his primary inspiration, having been mentored by the three-time Ballon d’Or winner during his time at Barcelona. “Without him, I wouldn’t be here. I know for sure this is why I am, right now, the manager of Manchester City and before that Bayern Munich and Barcelona,” Guardiola stated about his former coach in 2016. Just as Cruyff’s legacy paved the way for Guardiola, the Spaniard’s unprecedented impact on football is undeniable. His innovative methods have transformed the way the game is played across all levels of English football, with even amateur teams emulating his strategies.
While Guardiola’s influence on the sport will form a significant part of his legacy, it is his remarkable ability to achieve success while championing this evolution that truly sets him apart. Few would dare to challenge Guardiola’s accomplishments, and that isn’t the focus of this piece. He will remain one of the greatest managers in history. However, the decline in his dominance is clear. Should his Manchester City squad fail to clinch the league title this season, it will mark the first occasion in his career where he goes two consecutive seasons without securing the league. A legendary figure in football, but new stars are beginning to shine.
